Alan Wilson Wins South Carolina Governor's Race
Republican Alan Wilson is projected to defeat Democrat Jermaine Johnson, succeeding term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster and extending GOP control of the state.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 12:34 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 11:22 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Nov, 12:33 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 08:54 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 06:36 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 5% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 4 November at 03:01 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Jermaine Johnson — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat takes office as South Carolina's governor after the 2026 election. It resolves to No if someone else wins or holds the position. Readers often mistake the linked story about Alan Wilson for the final result, but only the actual inauguration matters.
- Wilson, 25+ pts — the market puts it at 0%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by a margin of 25 percentage points or more. It resolves to No if the winning margin is less than 25 percentage points. Readers often mistake the required margin for a simple win, but the candidate must achieve a specific point difference, not just victory.
- Johnson, 2+ pts — the market puts it at 6%, with $313 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by a margin of at least two percentage points. The outcome is No if the Democratic Party wins by less than two percentage points or loses the race. Readers often mistake the required margin, thinking any win counts rather than specifically a victory of 2% or more.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Jermaine Johnson No 3h ago
The market favoured No at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Wilson, 25+ pts 0% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Johnson, 2+ pts 6% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- Alan Wilson
- Jermaine Johnson
- Henry McMaster