Jermaine Johnson
The market favoured No at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$309k
Total volume$496k
Liquidity$496k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Why it moved: −28 points at 03:26 UTC, after The Hill: Alan Wilson wins South Carolina governor's race — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 12:34 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 11:22 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Nov, 12:33 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 08:54 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 06:36 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 6% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 5% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat takes office as South Carolina's governor after the 2026 election. It resolves to No if someone else wins or holds the position. Readers often mistake the linked story about Alan Wilson for the final result, but only the actual inauguration matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%