Abstention Key to Brazil's 2026 Presidential Election Run-off
Analysts examine whether the 21 percent of adults who abstained in the first round will determine the outcome of the upcoming run-off.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 26 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Oct, 18:32 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 66% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 24 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 24 October at 13:58 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- At least 125,000,000 — resolved “Yes” on 26 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if at least 125 million votes are cast in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including blank and null votes. The outcome is No if fewer than 125 million votes are cast. Readers often mistake the deadline for the first round or overlook that blank and null votes count toward the total.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved At least 125,000,000 Yes 3h ago
The market favoured Yes at 56% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?