At least 125,000,000
The market favoured Yes at 56% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 30%
24-hour volume$123
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolved26 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −58 points at 00:54 UTC, after Deutsche Welle: Brazil elections: Votes being tallied after polls close — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 26 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Oct, 18:32 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 66% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if at least 125 million votes are cast in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including blank and null votes. The outcome is No if fewer than 125 million votes are cast. Readers often mistake the deadline for the first round or overlook that blank and null votes count toward the total.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 30%
- No 70%