2026 Set to Be One of Hottest Years on Record as COP31 Opens

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 9 Nov 2026. BBC Science published first, on 9 November at 07:30 UTC; Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories followed 10h 30m later. The most recent article, from Times of India, appeared on 9 November at 19:05 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: BBC Science, Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, Times of India.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? — the market puts it at 0%, closing 2 Mar 2027. The market resolves based on whether 2026 ranks as the third hottest year in NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data. Readers often mistake temporary news reports or other agencies' data for the official source, but only the specific NASA table determines the final rank. The result locks in immediately when that data becomes available, ignoring any later revisions to the numbers.
• Before 2050 — the market puts it at 71%, with $69 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2050. The outcome is Yes if global temperatures hit or pass 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels in any single year before January 1, 2050. The outcome is No if that threshold remains unbreached by the deadline. Readers often mistake this for a long-term average rather than a specific annual peak.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.