Before 2050
Why it moved: −3 points at 06:44 UTC, after The Guardian Business: World must cut emissions by 18% in four years ‘to find our way back’, UN says — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 66% |
| 20 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 69% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if global temperatures hit or pass 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels in any single year before January 1, 2050. The outcome is No if that threshold remains unbreached by the deadline. Readers often mistake this for a long-term average rather than a specific annual peak.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 66%
- No 34%