Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
Implied probability 0%
Total volume$550k
Liquidity$52k
Resolves2 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 9 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 16:47 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on whether 2026 ranks as the third hottest year in NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data. Readers often mistake temporary news reports or other agencies' data for the official source, but only the specific NASA table determines the final rank. The result locks in immediately when that data becomes available, ignoring any later revisions to the numbers.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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