Victorian Labor Trailing One Nation in New Poll Ahead of 2026 Election
A new DemosAU/PremierNational poll shows the Victorian Labor party at an all-time low of 18%, trailing behind One Nation and the Coalition.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 10 Nov, 07:17 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Nov, 18:36 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Nov, 14:08 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 08:35 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 22:06 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 18% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 9 Nov 2026. The Guardian published first, on 9 November at 04:55 UTC. The most recent article, from The Guardian, appeared on 10 November at 14:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- One Nation — the market puts it at 4%, closing 28 Nov 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if One Nation wins the 2026 Victorian state election. It resolves to "No" otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked story about NSW for the relevant event, but only the outcome of the Victorian election matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi One Nation · Victorian state election winner? 4%
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In this story
- Ben Carroll
- Labor
- One Nation
- Coalition
- DemosAU/PremierNational