US Withdraws From Council of Europe Anti-Corruption Body Greco
The US formally notified the Strasbourg-based organization it is leaving the Group of States against Corruption, arguing that paying to belong no longer serves national interests.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Sept, 13:07 UTC | 12% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 30 Sept 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 30 September at 13:54 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- United Nations — the market puts it at 20%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the United States fully withdraws from the United Nations before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline.
- IRS — the market puts it at 6%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the Internal Revenue Service ceases to exist before January 20, 2029. The outcome is No if the agency remains operational on or after that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about the US leaving Greco as the relevant event, but only the elimination of the IRS counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi United Nations 20%
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- Kalshi IRS 6%
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- United States
- Council of Europe
- Greco