US Election Day Begins as Khamenei Empowers Talks

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 3 Nov 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 3 November at 08:59 UTC. The most recent article, from Bloomberg.com, appeared on 3 November at 11:37 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 6%, with $111 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei have any contact, including a phone call, before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for proof of contact, but only actual communication between the two men counts toward resolution.
• Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026? — resolved “No” on 3 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on the number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts Khamenei makes on X between October 27 at 12:00 PM ET and November 3 at 12:00 PM ET, 2026. A Yes outcome requires exactly five to nine qualifying posts during this window, while any other count results in a No. Readers often mistake replies for valid posts or miss the specific start and end times of the tracking period.
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — the market puts it at 87%, with $12k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. For Yes, Mojtaba Khamenei must exercise primary governing control over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. For No, he must not hold this effective authority at that specific moment. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the linked news event rather than the fixed date and time in late 2026.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.