Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Implied probability 86%
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$7.0M
Liquidity$66k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 07:45 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 17:13 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 20:00 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 83% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 17:26 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 21:15 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 20:44 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 19:33 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 14:06 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Oct, 02:44 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 20:10 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 01:32 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 22:08 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 86% |
| 26 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 85% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 86% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 86% |
| 25 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 86% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 86% |
| 25 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 86% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
For Yes, Mojtaba Khamenei must exercise primary governing control over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. For No, he must not hold this effective authority at that specific moment. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the linked news event rather than the fixed date and time in late 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 86%
- No 14%
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