Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
The market favoured No at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$995
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$816
Resolved3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 11:20 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 09:54 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 09:06 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 09:06 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves based on the number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts Khamenei makes on X between October 27 at 12:00 PM ET and November 3 at 12:00 PM ET, 2026. A Yes outcome requires exactly five to nine qualifying posts during this window, while any other count results in a No. Readers often mistake replies for valid posts or miss the specific start and end times of the tracking period.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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