UK on course to miss overseas aid target by £400m in 2027
Official forecasts indicate the UK will fall short of its 0.3% national income aid pledge by an estimated £400m next year.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 4% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 26 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 26 October at 05:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before 2027 — the market puts it at 3%, with $43 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the International Monetary Fund officially declares a global recession in its World Economic Outlook reports before 2027. It resolves to No if that specific declaration does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake general economic downturns or news headlines for an official IMF declaration.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
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- Kalshi Before 2027 3%
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In this story
- Labour
- Center for Global Development