Before 2027
Implied probability 3%+2
24-hour volume$1
Total volume$80k
Liquidity$80k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the International Monetary Fund officially declares a global recession in its World Economic Outlook reports before 2027. It resolves to No if that specific declaration does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake general economic downturns or news headlines for an official IMF declaration.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%