Trump Threatens to Double Tariffs on Mexico Over Migrant Caravans

The US president warns he will immediately double tariffs if Mexico fails to halt migrant caravans approaching the southern border.

4 publishers · 4 articles · first seen 12 Nov 2026 · updated 2h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by Fox News Politics, 17 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

The odds

How the odds moved · During Trump's term

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	10%
12 Nov, 10:41 UTC	10%
11 Nov, 18:38 UTC	13%
11 Nov, 05:01 UTC	10%
11 Nov, 02:27 UTC	11%
10 Nov, 23:56 UTC	10%
10 Nov, 20:48 UTC	11%
10 Nov, 20:21 UTC	10%
10 Nov, 19:19 UTC	10%
10 Nov, 17:50 UTC	10%
10 Nov, 16:25 UTC	10%
10 Nov, 14:48 UTC	12%
10 Nov, 03:34 UTC	10%
10 Nov, 03:21 UTC	11%
10 Nov, 00:32 UTC	10%
10 Nov, 00:26 UTC	13%
9 Nov, 19:07 UTC	11%
9 Nov, 14:50 UTC	14%
9 Nov, 10:47 UTC	11%
9 Nov, 10:23 UTC	12%
9 Nov, 06:43 UTC	15%
9 Nov, 01:20 UTC	13%
8 Nov, 17:44 UTC	15%
8 Nov, 15:00 UTC	14%
7 Nov, 15:39 UTC	16%
7 Nov, 00:23 UTC	13%
6 Nov, 22:14 UTC	15%
6 Nov, 19:25 UTC	14%
6 Nov, 18:34 UTC	16%
6 Nov, 18:27 UTC	14%
5 Nov, 18:13 UTC	15%
5 Nov, 15:49 UTC	16%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 12 Nov 2026. Fox News Politics published first, on 12 November at 12:27 UTC; News - South China Morning Post followed 18 min later. The most recent article, from News Feed, appeared on 12 November at 14:12 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Fox News Politics, News - South China Morning Post, Quartz.

One prediction market prices this story:

During Trump's term — the market puts it at 10%, with $396 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the United States government takes control of any part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about tariffs for the relevant event, but only actual control of the canal counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on During Trump's term at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

12 Nov, 12:27Fox News Politics Trump threatens to double tariffs on Mexico if migrant caravans not stopped10%
12 Nov, 12:45News - South China Morning Post Trump threatens to double tariffs on Mexico if it does not halt migrants10%
12 Nov, 13:00Quartz Trump threatened to double Mexico tariffs immediately over migrant caravans10%
12 Nov, 14:12News Feed Trump threatens to double tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration10%
NowCurrent odds10%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi During Trump's term · Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? 10% $396 24hends 20 Jan 2029
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In this story

Donald Trump
Mexico

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