Trump Pardons Cost Victims $119M in Restitution
Fraudsters secured clemency while victims lost out on $119 million in restitution.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 27 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 15:12 UTC | 0% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 27 Oct 2026. CBS News Politics published first, on 27 October at 10:00 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- 50 to 99 — the market puts it at 10%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the President pardons, commutes a sentence, or grants a reprieve to between 50 and 99 people after the question is issued and before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if this specific range of actions does not occur within that timeframe.
- 2 — the market puts it at 71%, closing 1 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the President pardons, commutes a sentence for, or grants a reprieve to exactly two people during October 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for any number of pardons rather than requiring precisely two.
- Yes — the market puts it at 83%, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump, his immediate family, or their spouses receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about diesel mechanics for the triggering event, but only pardons granted to the specified individuals count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi 50 to 99 10%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi 2 71%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Yes 83%
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Wrong market?
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