Trump Must Understand China's Pressure On Taiwan Arms Sales
Chinese pressure on America to stop arms sales aims to change the political calculus in Taipei.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 9 Nov, 08:56 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Nov, 03:08 UTC | 48% |
| 8 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 50% |
| 6 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Nov, 12:52 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 12% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 9 Nov 2026. The Economist published first, on 9 November at 12:58 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before Jan 20, 2029 — the market puts it at 16%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the delivery of fighter jets for formal diplomatic recognition.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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- Kalshi Before Jan 20, 2029 16%
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- China
- Taiwan
- Ker Gibbs