Trump Endorses Netanyahu Ahead of Israeli Elections Hot: $746k traded on its market in 24 hours
The US president backs the Israeli prime minister in a social media post, warning that America must handle Iran alone if he is not re-elected.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 33% |
| 18 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 33% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 18:03 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 16:09 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 28% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 30% |
| 15 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 30% |
| 15 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 05:09 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 02:08 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 26% |
| 14 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 08:34 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 23:30 UTC | 33% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? respond.
The story so far
8 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 18 Oct 2026. Times of India published first, on 18 October at 15:45 UTC; Just In News followed 0 min later. The most recent article, from South China Morning Post, appeared on 18 October at 17:04 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Just In News (major outlet), CBS News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Times of India, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Fox News Politics, South China Morning Post.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — the market puts it at 33%, with $746k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Benjamin Netanyahu is formally sworn in as Prime Minister after an election. The No outcome applies if someone else takes that oath or if no new Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027. Readers often mistake the date of a political tour or appointment for the official swearing-in ceremony.
- Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? — resolved “No” on 18 Oct 2026. For the "Yes" outcome to occur, Donald Trump must not endorse any party in the 2026 Israeli legislative election by December 31, 2026, or the day before the election at 11:59 PM ET. For the "No" outcome, he must announce support for a specific candidate or party within that timeframe.
- Benjamin Netanyahu — the market puts it at 1%, closing 27 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu formally takes office as Minister of Foreign Affairs following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the date of the election for the deadline; the actual cutoff is when he assumes the specific role.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Times of IndiaTrump endorses Bibi for re-election, warns Israel against choosing 'wrong leader'32%
- Just In NewsTrump endorses Netanyahu ahead of Israeli elections32%
- CBS NewsTrump endorses Israel's Netanyahu ahead of reelection bid32%▼1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesTrump endorses embattled Israeli PM Netanyahu ahead of October 27 election32%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTrump endorses Netanyahu in Israeli legislative elections32%
- Fox News PoliticsTrump says Netanyahu needs to be re-elected, or else US will have to 'finish the job’ against Iran alone32%
- News FeedTrump endorses Netanyahu ahead of Israeli elections33%▲1 points since the previous source
- South China Morning PostTrump endorses ally Netanyahu in Israeli election, praising ‘great warrior prime minister’32%▼1 points since the previous source
- Current odds33%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Trump endorses Netanyahu ahead of Israeli elections News Feed ·
- Trump endorses Netanyahu in Israeli legislative elections Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Trump endorses Israel's Netanyahu ahead of reelection bid CBS News ·
- Trump endorses Netanyahu ahead of Israeli elections Just In News ·
- Trump endorses ally Netanyahu in Israeli election, praising ‘great warrior prime minister’ South China Morning Post
- Trump says Netanyahu needs to be re-elected, or else US will have to 'finish the job’ against Iran alone Fox News Politics
- Trump endorses embattled Israeli PM Netanyahu ahead of October 27 election France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Trump endorses Bibi for re-election, warns Israel against choosing 'wrong leader' Times of India
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 33% +5
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? No 1h ago
The market favoured Yes at 65% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Benjamin Netanyahu 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Netanyahu