US Sanctions Iranian Crypto Exchange BitBank for IRGC Bitcoin Transfers
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned BitBank for processing payments from Iran's Strait of Hormuz toll scheme and transferring hundreds of millions in bitcoin to the Revolutionary Guards.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 13:12 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 05:08 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 12:25 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 05:05 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 04:23 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 17:18 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 12:20 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 10:34 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 08:48 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 07:17 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 00:01 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 19:48 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 10:31 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 05:09 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Sept, 23:12 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Sept, 22:42 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 19:04 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 16:24 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 15:14 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 14:07 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 5% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 20:19 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 08:32 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 07:10 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 06:06 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 05:33 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 05:12 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 03:10 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Sept, 05:58 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Sept, 05:14 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Sept, 02:53 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Sept, 01:47 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Sept, 23:36 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Sept, 23:28 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Sept, 22:36 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Sept, 22:27 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Sept, 20:22 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Sept, 14:33 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 13:26 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 12:59 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 12:27 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 11:44 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 11:04 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 04:05 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Sept, 04:05 UTC | 6% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Iran Nuke before 2027? respond.
The story so far
11 publishers have covered this in 13 articles since 12 Sept 2026. Times of India published first, on 12 September at 04:22 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 47h 10m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 19 September at 08:18 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), CoinDesk (major outlet), Times of India, Deutsche Welle, www.theregister.com, The Block, Latest articles, Cointelegraph.com News, decrypt.co, Fox News World.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Iran Nuke before 2027? — the market puts it at 4%, with $8k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome requires credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or global news sources to officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this confirmation does not occur within the specified timeframe.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. Iran must publicly pledge to stop all uranium enrichment by September 30, 2026, for the market to resolve as Yes. This pledge can come from Iran alone or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel, and it counts even if the agreement is not yet finalized. Readers often mistake limiting enrichment levels for ending it entirely, which does not qualify.
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Iran officially announces and starts collecting mandatory fees from commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz by September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The fee must apply generally or to a defined group of ships, and credible reporting must confirm that collection has begun alongside the official announcement.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Iran Nuke before 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Times of India‘Clearest evidence’ of Chinese support? Iran got satellite images before Jordan attack—
- Deutsche WelleTrump dismisses report China supplied intel to Iran6%
- www.theregister.comIranian spies hit Windows machines with Chosen Brick data-stealing malware6%
- News FeedIran uses spyware disguised as MRI scan results to hack critics, say western officials6%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraWestern intelligence warns of Iranian cyber threats targeting dissidents6%
- Deutsche WelleIran: Activists sound alarm as regime seizes Baha'i assets6%
- The BlockUS sanctions Iranian crypto exchange BitBank over alleged bitcoin transfers to IRGC5%▼1 points since the previous source
- Latest articlesRussia, China end mandate for independent monitoring of U.N. sanctions on Iran5%
- Cointelegraph.com NewsUS sanctions Iran’s BitBank, saying it processes ‘Hormuz Safe’ Bitcoin payments5%
- CoinDeskIran’s Strait of Hormuz toll booth ran through a bitcoin exchange, U.S. says5%
Show 3 later sources
- decrypt.coTreasury Sanctions Crypto Exchange Behind Iran's Bitcoin Tolls on Hormuz Ships5%
- Fox News WorldChina firm gave Iran lifeline to collect Hormuz tolls before pulling plug amid US warning5%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTurkiye revokes operating licence of Iran’s Bank Mellat in Istanbul5%
- Current odds4%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Turkiye revokes operating licence of Iran’s Bank Mellat in Istanbul Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Iran’s Strait of Hormuz toll booth ran through a bitcoin exchange, U.S. says CoinDesk ·
- Western intelligence warns of Iranian cyber threats targeting dissidents Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Iran uses spyware disguised as MRI scan results to hack critics, say western officials News Feed ·
- China firm gave Iran lifeline to collect Hormuz tolls before pulling plug amid US warning Fox News World
- Treasury Sanctions Crypto Exchange Behind Iran's Bitcoin Tolls on Hormuz Ships decrypt.co
Show 7 more sources
- US sanctions Iran’s BitBank, saying it processes ‘Hormuz Safe’ Bitcoin payments Cointelegraph.com News
- Russia, China end mandate for independent monitoring of U.N. sanctions on Iran Latest articles
- US sanctions Iranian crypto exchange BitBank over alleged bitcoin transfers to IRGC The Block
- Iran: Activists sound alarm as regime seizes Baha'i assets Deutsche Welle
- Iranian spies hit Windows machines with Chosen Brick data-stealing malware www.theregister.com
- Trump dismisses report China supplied intel to Iran Deutsche Welle
- ‘Clearest evidence’ of Chinese support? Iran got satellite images before Jordan attack Times of India
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Iran Nuke before 2027? 4% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30? No 28d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? No 28d ago
The market favoured No at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- BitBank
- U.S. Treasury
- Iran
- IRGC
- Strait of Hormuz