Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$330
Total volume$90k
Liquidity$33k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 07:58 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 04:27 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 01:23 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 23:54 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 13:42 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 12:48 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 07:02 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 4% |
What counts
Iran must publicly pledge to stop all uranium enrichment by September 30, 2026, for the market to resolve as Yes. This pledge can come from Iran alone or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel, and it counts even if the agreement is not yet finalized. Readers often mistake limiting enrichment levels for ending it entirely, which does not qualify.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →