Iran Nuke before 2027?
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$17
Total volume$1.3M
Liquidity$83k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 07:10 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 14:06 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The Yes outcome requires credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or global news sources to officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this confirmation does not occur within the specified timeframe.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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