Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
Implied probability 2%−6
24-hour volume$83k
Total volume$479k
Liquidity$30k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iran officially announces and starts collecting mandatory fees from commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz by September 30 at 11:59 PM ET. The fee must apply generally or to a defined group of ships, and credible reporting must confirm that collection has begun alongside the official announcement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%