US Election Costs, China AI Push, Venezuela Polls and Chile AFP Losses

Coverage spans US midterm spending, China's robotics lead, Venezuelan election data, and financial losses for Chilean pension funds.

6 publishers · 767 articles · first seen 6 Sept 2026 · updated 4h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Before Jan 1, 2027

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 665 more published before price tracking began

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	39%
23 Oct, 23:43 UTC	39%
23 Oct, 22:28 UTC	35%
23 Oct, 21:48 UTC	37%
23 Oct, 18:40 UTC	41%
23 Oct, 17:04 UTC	47%
23 Oct, 05:18 UTC	32%
23 Oct, 03:41 UTC	33%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC	41%
22 Oct, 16:12 UTC	38%
21 Oct, 14:13 UTC	37%
20 Oct, 22:17 UTC	31%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC	33%
19 Oct, 02:49 UTC	36%
18 Oct, 19:17 UTC	35%
18 Oct, 11:19 UTC	31%
17 Oct, 21:04 UTC	32%

The story so far

6 publishers have covered this in 767 articles since 6 Sept 2026. es.wired.com published first, on 6 September at 23:14 UTC; France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo followed 43h 06m later. The most recent article, from France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo, appeared on 24 October at 05:21 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: es.wired.com (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo, kffhealthnews.org, SI Feed.

2 prediction markets price this story:

Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 39%, with $207 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters and stays inside Venezuela’s borders before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if she does not do so by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story for proof of her presence, but only her actual physical location matters.
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? — the market puts it at 33%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuela's land territory before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if she does not enter by that deadline. Readers often mistakenly count visits to Venezuelan airspace or maritime zones as a positive resolution.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Jan 1, 2027 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 761 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 39% +7 $207 24hends 1 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Polymarket Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? 33% +9 $7k 24hends 1 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong

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Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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In this story

Elon Musk
China
EE.UU.
Venezuela
María Corina Machado
Sandra Ortega

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