Troy Jackson Unseats Susan Collins in Maine Senate Race Hot: Odds moved 15 points in 24 hours
Jackson defeats the incumbent Republican senator, ending her decades-long tenure in the US Senate.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 00:36 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 21:03 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 18:47 UTC | 10% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. politico.com published first, on 4 November at 06:02 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Susan Collins, 0-2% — the market puts it at 2%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Susan Collins wins the 2026 Maine Senate election by a margin between 0% and 2%. The outcome is No if her victory margin falls outside that range or if she loses. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the official certification of results.
- Hannah Pingree and Susan Collins win — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Susan Collins, 0-2% 2% −15
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Hannah Pingree and Susan Collins win No 2h ago
The market favoured No at 72% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Troy Jackson
- Susan Collins
- Maine