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Tom Cruise Film Digger Set For $245m Box Office Loss

The eco-satire directed by Alejandro G Iñárritu is projected to lose $245 million after a 60% drop in its second weekend.

4 publishers · 4 articles · first seen 11 Oct 2026 · updated 11h ago

The odds

How the odds moved · Digger
0%50%100%23%6 Oct, 02:30 UTCnowThe Guardian: Digger on course for $245m loss after box office collapse · 12 Oct, 12:51 UTCVariety: Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Now Stands to Lose $245 Million After Dropping 60% in Second Weekend · 11 Oct, 18:37 UTCFeatures – IndieWire: Why Seeing ‘Digger’ in VistaVision Could Change Your Mind About the Tom Cruise Box Office Flop · 12 Oct, 13:00 UTCBBC Entertainment: Tom Cruise film Digger could lose $245m at box office · 12 Oct, 11:29 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now23%
12 Oct, 20:43 UTC23%
12 Oct, 11:32 UTC22%
11 Oct, 23:43 UTC23%
11 Oct, 19:33 UTC24%
11 Oct, 19:24 UTC22%
11 Oct, 17:48 UTC22%
11 Oct, 15:40 UTC19%
11 Oct, 04:09 UTC23%
11 Oct, 03:26 UTC23%
10 Oct, 20:53 UTC19%
10 Oct, 19:50 UTC23%
10 Oct, 18:14 UTC20%
10 Oct, 16:48 UTC23%
10 Oct, 07:30 UTC19%
10 Oct, 05:00 UTC22%
10 Oct, 03:53 UTC20%
10 Oct, 03:13 UTC23%
10 Oct, 00:39 UTC19%
10 Oct, 00:12 UTC21%
9 Oct, 12:38 UTC17%
9 Oct, 08:09 UTC13%
9 Oct, 03:20 UTC15%
8 Oct, 23:42 UTC14%
8 Oct, 23:03 UTC11%
8 Oct, 21:20 UTC16%
8 Oct, 20:34 UTC15%
8 Oct, 19:39 UTC11%
8 Oct, 15:36 UTC14%
8 Oct, 13:43 UTC15%
8 Oct, 12:38 UTC13%
8 Oct, 09:59 UTC16%
8 Oct, 03:08 UTC15%
8 Oct, 02:40 UTC13%
7 Oct, 08:40 UTC16%
7 Oct, 00:35 UTC18%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC13%
6 Oct, 17:53 UTC25%
6 Oct, 09:48 UTC9%
6 Oct, 02:30 UTC13%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 11 Oct 2026. Variety published first, on 11 October at 18:37 UTC; BBC Entertainment followed 16h 52m later. The most recent article, from Features – IndieWire, appeared on 12 October at 13:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), BBC Entertainment, Features – IndieWire.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Digger — the market puts it at 23%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the premiere date or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
  • Digger — the market puts it at 27%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if it does not receive that specific nomination. Readers often mistake the premiere date or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
  • Digger — the market puts it at 27%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the premiere or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Digger at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. VarietyTom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Now Stands to Lose $245 Million After Dropping 60% in Second Weekend22%
  2. BBC EntertainmentTom Cruise film Digger could lose $245m at box office23%▲2 points since the previous source
  3. The GuardianDigger on course for $245m loss after box office collapse22%▼1 points since the previous source
  4. Features – IndieWireWhy Seeing ‘Digger’ in VistaVision Could Change Your Mind About the Tom Cruise Box Office Flop22%
  5. Current odds23%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Digger on course for $245m loss after box office collapse The Guardian ·
  2. Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Now Stands to Lose $245 Million After Dropping 60% in Second Weekend Variety ·
  3. Why Seeing ‘Digger’ in VistaVision Could Change Your Mind About the Tom Cruise Box Office Flop Features – IndieWire
  4. Tom Cruise film Digger could lose $245m at box office BBC Entertainment

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Digger 23% −1 $2k 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Digger 27% $0 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Digger 27% $0 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Tom Cruise
  • Alejandro G Iñárritu
  • Digger
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