Collins, Jackson Clash in Maine Senate Debate Over Trump and Policy
Republican Senator Susan Collins distanced herself from Donald Trump while facing Democrat Troy Jackson in their first televised debate for a critical Maine Senate seat.
First reported by National Review, 5h 42m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 42% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 42% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 05:12 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 41% |
| 2 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 42% |
| 2 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Sept, 19:01 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 40% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Susan Collins respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 6 Oct 2026. National Review published first, on 6 October at 10:30 UTC; Washington Post followed 5h 42m later. The most recent article, from CBS News Politics, appeared on 7 October at 04:03 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Washington Post (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), National Review.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Susan Collins — the market puts it at 42%, with $44k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican takes office as a U.S. Senator from Maine for the term starting in 2027. It resolves to No otherwise. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
- Collins, 3+ pts — the market puts it at 26%, with $610 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 Maine Senate election by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. It is No if the winner loses by less than that margin or if the opponent wins. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the election deadline, but only the final certified results of the 2026 election determine the resolution.
- Republican party — the market puts it at 20%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Republican party wins control of the Maine State Senate in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if they do not win control. Readers often mistake this for a single-seat race or confuse the winner with the incumbent mentioned in the linked story.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Susan Collins at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- National ReviewThe Civic Stakes of the Maine Senate Race45%
- Washington PostSusan Collins, a political survivor, tries to outrun Trump45%
- Washington PostTakeaways from the Maine Senate debate between Susan Collins, Troy Jackson45%
- The Hill NewsCollins, Jackson clash in first Maine Senate debate: 3 takeaways45%
- The Guardian US‘Not exactly his favorite senator’: Susan Collins distances herself from Trump in Maine debate45%
- CBS News PoliticsIn Maine Senate debate, Collins and Jackson both criticize Trump — but spar over how45%
- Current odds42%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- In Maine Senate debate, Collins and Jackson both criticize Trump — but spar over how CBS News Politics ·
- ‘Not exactly his favorite senator’: Susan Collins distances herself from Trump in Maine debate The Guardian US ·
- Collins, Jackson clash in first Maine Senate debate: 3 takeaways The Hill News ·
- Takeaways from the Maine Senate debate between Susan Collins, Troy Jackson Washington Post ·
- Susan Collins, a political survivor, tries to outrun Trump Washington Post ·
- The Civic Stakes of the Maine Senate Race National Review
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Susan Collins 42% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Collins, 3+ pts 26% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Republican party 20%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Susan Collins
- Troy Jackson
- Donald Trump
- Maine