Collins, 3+ pts
Implied probability 26%−3
24-hour volume$610
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Oct, 03:00 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Oct, 02:37 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 33% |
| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 Maine Senate election by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. It is No if the winner loses by less than that margin or if the opponent wins. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the election deadline, but only the final certified results of the 2026 election determine the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 74%