Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez launches campaign for snap November election
Pedro Sánchez begins campaigning for the November 29 vote, which was triggered after Parliament rejected tenant protection measures.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 12 Oct, 23:08 UTC | 15% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 15% |
| 12 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 15% |
| 12 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 02:18 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 17% |
| 11 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 17% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 18% |
| 8 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 14:44 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 11:25 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 21% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 25% |
| 8 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 24% |
| 8 Oct, 01:01 UTC | 24% |
| 8 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 24% |
| 8 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 22:12 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 24% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 20% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 10:25 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 05:21 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 18% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 9 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 9 October at 20:39 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 35h 08m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 12 October at 12:08 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? — the market puts it at 15%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Apr 2028. For the "Yes" outcome, Pedro Sánchez must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in as Prime Minister by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The "No" outcome occurs if another individual assumes the role or if no new Prime Minister is officially confirmed by that deadline.
- Pedro Sánchez — the market puts it at 18%, with $116 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 22 Aug 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain after the next general election and satisfies all constitutional requirements before August 22, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff.
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 23%, with $8k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez stops being Prime Minister at any point before December 31, 2026. This includes his resignation, removal, detention, or permanent prevention from duty. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective date, but an early announcement triggers immediate resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraHow will Spain’s housing crisis affect elections?18%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesSpanish PM Sanchez kicks off election campaign amid housing crisis protests17%▼1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesSpanish PM begins vote campaign overshadowed by housing protests17%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesSpain: Sánchez and Feijóo launch campaigns17%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraFar right surges as crises threaten Sanchez: Could Vox lead Spain?16%▼1 points since the previous source
- Current odds15%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Far right surges as crises threaten Sanchez: Could Vox lead Spain? Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- How will Spain’s housing crisis affect elections? Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Spain: Sánchez and Feijóo launch campaigns France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Spanish PM begins vote campaign overshadowed by housing protests France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Spanish PM Sanchez kicks off election campaign amid housing crisis protests France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? 15% −1
Does the market have this right?
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- Kalshi Pedro Sánchez 18% +3
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Wrong market?
- Polymarket Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? 23%
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In this story
- Pedro Sánchez
- Alberto Núñez Feijóo
- Spain