Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Why it moved: +8 points at 17:59 UTC, after France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: De Alemania a Grecia: así responden los países europeos a la crisis de vivienda — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 5 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 11:07 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 37% |
| 5 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 06:03 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 03:26 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 11:23 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 11:01 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Oct, 07:00 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Oct, 17:37 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez stops being Prime Minister at any point before December 31, 2026. This includes his resignation, removal, detention, or permanent prevention from duty. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the effective date, but an early announcement triggers immediate resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 69%
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