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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 12 Oct, 14:22 UTC | 10% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 11 Oct 2026. Engadget - Technology News & Expert Reviews published first, on 11 October at 22:30 UTC; TechCrunch followed 39h 20m later. The most recent article, from TechCrunch, appeared on 13 October at 13:50 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: TechCrunch (major outlet), Engadget.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Above 90 — the market puts it at 10%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the number of downloads for the Carbon Arc Grok App in October 2026 exceeds 90. The outcome is No if that download count is 90 or lower. Readers often mistake the resolution date for the current date, but the metric depends strictly on data from October 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above 90 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Above 90 10%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- SpaceXSI
- X Premium
- Grok
- Cursor