Grok
Implied probability 3%+1
24-hour volume$16k
Total volume$2.1M
Liquidity$2.1M
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 17:02 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 00:22 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 11:36 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if xAI’s Grok holds the number one spot among large language models on December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if any other model ranks higher on that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about subscription bundles for evidence of technical ranking performance.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%