South Africa v Australia first men’s cricket Test begins in Durban
Australia's bowling attack is expected to remain unchanged as the first Test match starts at Kingsmead Cricket Ground.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 53% |
| 9 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 53% |
| 9 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 53% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 55% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 56% |
| 9 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 56% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 61% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 57% |
| 9 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 61% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 52% |
| 9 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 49% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 46% |
| 9 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 54% |
| 9 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 50% |
| 9 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 07:23 UTC | 42% |
| 8 Oct, 03:11 UTC | 48% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 9 Oct 2026. The Guardian Sport published first, on 9 October at 06:58 UTC; SkySports followed 8h 10m later. The most recent article, from SkySports, appeared on 9 October at 15:08 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), SkySports.
One prediction market prices this story:
- South Africa — the market puts it at 53%, with $43k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 16 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if South Africa wins the men's professional Test series against Australia. It resolves to No if South Africa does not win that specific series. Readers often mistake the start date of the first match for the deadline, but the outcome depends on the final result of the entire series.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi South Africa 53% +6
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In this story
- South Africa
- Australia
- Pat Cummins
- Mitchell Starc
- Josh Hazlewood
- Nathan Lyon