Socialist Movement Fractures Over Los Angeles Mayoral Candidate's Israel Stance
National leaders debate disowning Nithya Raman due to her position on the BDS movement.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 35% |
| 28 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Oct, 13:47 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 70% |
| 23 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 48% |
| 22 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 44% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 46% |
| 21 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 45% |
| 20 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 51% |
| 14 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 47% |
| 14 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 52% |
| 14 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 53% |
| 12 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 50% |
| 10 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 60% |
| 10 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 56% |
| 8 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 65% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 59% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 62% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 61% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 42% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 27 Oct 2026. Axios published first, on 27 October at 09:30 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Nithya Raman, ≥2% — the market puts it at 39%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Nithya Raman wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 2%. The outcome is No if she loses or wins by less than 2%. Readers often mistake the linked poll results for the final election result.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Nithya Raman, ≥2% 39% −12
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In this story
- Nithya Raman
- Zohran Mamdani
- Democratic Socialists of America