Salazar gains Colombia president's endorsement in tight reelection race Hot: Odds moved 13 points in 24 hours
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar secures support from Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella amid a close contest where she has diverged from Trump on immigration.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 27% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 25% |
| 11 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 32% |
| 11 Oct, 17:48 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 32% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 13 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 13 October at 13:30 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Marco Rubio — the market puts it at 30%, with $70 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Mar 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump publicly endorses Marco Rubio for the 2028 presidential election before March 1, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Colombia as the trigger, but only a direct endorsement by Trump counts.
- Colombia / Colombian — resolved “Yes” on 14 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump states "Colombia" or "Colombian" (including plural or possessive forms) between October 1, 2026 at 10:00am ET and November 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any mention in news reports counts rather than only direct statements by Trump.
- Abelardo de la Espriella — the market puts it at 25%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump and Abelardo de la Espriella meet in person between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the actual event, but only a direct meeting between these two specific individuals counts toward resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Marco Rubio 30% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Colombia / Colombian Yes 3h ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Abelardo de la Espriella 25% −13
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Maria Elvira Salazar
- Abelardo de la Espriella
- Donald Trump