Colombia Opens Embassy in Jerusalem and Restores Free Trade with Israel
The new administration under President Abelardo de la Espriella has established diplomatic ties by opening an embassy in West Jerusalem and reinstating free trade agreements.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 13 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 99% |
| 12 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 68% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 14 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 14 October at 12:28 UTC. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 14 October at 14:08 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Colombia / Colombian — resolved “Yes” on 14 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump states "Colombia" or "Colombian" (including plural or possessive forms) between October 1, 2026 at 10:00am ET and November 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any mention in news reports counts rather than only direct statements by Trump.
- Belize — the market puts it at 9%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Israel and Belize establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake this deadline for a different date or assume that informal contacts count as normalization.
- Israel — the market puts it at 8%, with $513 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and stays inside Israel between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about arms sales for the resolution criteria, but only Trump's physical presence matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Resolved Colombia / Colombian Yes 3h ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Belize 9%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Israel 8% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Colombia
- Israel
- Abelardo de la Espriella