Sabu’s ‘Arrested Memory’ Leads Golden Horse Awards Nominations
The film tops the field with 11 nominations, one ahead of Shu Qi’s ‘Girl,’ which picked up 10.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 88% |
| 2 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 87% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 90% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 87% |
| 30 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 88% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 93% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 92% |
| 26 Sept, 12:24 UTC | 90% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 1 Oct 2026. Variety published first, on 1 October at 12:45 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 14h 23m later. The most recent article, from South China Morning Post, appeared on 2 October at 03:08 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), South China Morning Post.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Wild Horse Nine — the market puts it at 88%, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film *Wild Horse Nine* receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the release date or critical acclaim for the official criterion; only the formal Oscar nomination list matters.
- Wild Horse Nine — the market puts it at 79%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Wild Horse Nine receives a nomination for Achievement in Casting at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if it does not receive this specific nomination. Readers often mistake general nominations or awards from other ceremonies, such as the Golden Horse Awards mentioned in the linked story, for qualifying criteria.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Wild Horse Nine 88% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Wild Horse Nine 79%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Sabu
- Shu Qi
- Golden Horse Awards