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Sabu’s ‘Arrested Memory’ Leads Golden Horse Awards Nominations

The film tops the field with 11 nominations, one ahead of Shu Qi’s ‘Girl,’ which picked up 10.

2 publishers · 2 articles · first seen 1 Oct 2026 · updated 2h ago

The odds

How the odds moved · Wild Horse Nine
0%50%100%88%26 Sept, 12:24 UTCnowVariety: Sabu’s ‘Arrested Memory’ Leads Golden Horse Awards Nominations, Shu Qi’s ‘Girl’ Close Behind · 1 Oct, 12:45 UTCSouth China Morning Post: Golden Horse Awards 2026 nominations in full: Arrested Memory and Girl lead the race · 2 Oct, 03:08 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now88%
2 Oct, 03:09 UTC88%
2 Oct, 00:03 UTC87%
1 Oct, 15:58 UTC90%
1 Oct, 02:00 UTC87%
30 Sept, 14:06 UTC88%
30 Sept, 13:57 UTC93%
29 Sept, 15:59 UTC92%
26 Sept, 12:24 UTC90%

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 1 Oct 2026. Variety published first, on 1 October at 12:45 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 14h 23m later. The most recent article, from South China Morning Post, appeared on 2 October at 03:08 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), South China Morning Post.

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Wild Horse Nine — the market puts it at 88%, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film *Wild Horse Nine* receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the release date or critical acclaim for the official criterion; only the formal Oscar nomination list matters.
  • Wild Horse Nine — the market puts it at 79%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Wild Horse Nine receives a nomination for Achievement in Casting at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if it does not receive this specific nomination. Readers often mistake general nominations or awards from other ceremonies, such as the Golden Horse Awards mentioned in the linked story, for qualifying criteria.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Sabu’s ‘Arrested Memory’ Leads Golden Horse Awards Nominations, Shu Qi’s ‘Girl’ Close Behind Variety ·
  2. Golden Horse Awards 2026 nominations in full: Arrested Memory and Girl lead the race South China Morning Post

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Wild Horse Nine 88% +1 $50 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Wild Horse Nine 79% $0 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Sabu
  • Shu Qi
  • Golden Horse Awards
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