S&P 500 Notches First Record Close Since August
The index achieves its highest closing level in over four months, marking a significant milestone for the benchmark.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 62% |
| 8 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 62% |
| 7 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 54% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Oct, 05:01 UTC | 46% |
| 5 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 51% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 18:14 UTC | 37% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 35% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 6 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 6 October at 21:35 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Before Nov 1, 2026 — the market puts it at 62%, with $160 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the S&P 500 Index exceeds $8,000 at any time between now and November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if the index never reaches that level within this period. Readers often mistake the resolution date for a closing price requirement rather than a threshold check.
- 8,500 or above — the market puts it at 5%, with $131 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 index value exceeds 8500 on December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST. It resolves to No if the value is 8500 or lower at that specific time. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Before Nov 1, 2026 62% −4
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi 8,500 or above 5%
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In this story
- S&P 500