Before Nov 1, 2026
Why it moved: +9 points at 12:14 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Dollar Notches Seasonal End-of-September Gains on Hawkish Fed — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 44% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 35% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the S&P 500 Index exceeds $8,000 at any time between now and November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if the index never reaches that level within this period. Readers often mistake the resolution date for a closing price requirement rather than a threshold check.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 44%
- No 56%