Robert Pattinson to Receive 40th American Cinematheque Award
The actor is honored for his versatile career after Ryan Gosling withdrew from the February 2027 ceremony.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Nov, 12:59 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 02:47 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 29% |
| 4 Nov, 10:36 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 22:02 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 08:01 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Nov, 04:50 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 27% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 28% |
| 31 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 26% |
| 31 Oct, 01:32 UTC | 25% |
| 31 Oct, 01:11 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 24% |
| 30 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 24% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Robert Pattinson respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 5 Nov 2026. Variety published first, on 5 November at 17:00 UTC. The most recent article, from Deadline, appeared on 5 November at 17:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), IndieWire, Deadline.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Robert Pattinson — the market puts it at 30%, with $345 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Robert Pattinson receives a nomination for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about his new film as relevant to the resolution, but only Oscar nominations count.
- Robert Pattinson — the market puts it at 2%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The outcome is Yes if Robert Pattinson wins Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the nomination list for the final winner.
- Robert Pattinson — the market puts it at 6%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Robert Pattinson wins Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake other awards or nominations for the decisive factor, but only this particular Oscar matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Robert Pattinson at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Robert Pattinson 30% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Robert Pattinson 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Robert Pattinson 6%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Robert Pattinson
- American Cinematheque
- Ryan Gosling