Rays beat Guardians 3-1 to level ALCS after Ramirez error Hot: Odds moved 13 points in 24 hours
Freddy Peralta pitches six scoreless innings as Tampa Bay capitalizes on Jose Ramirez's fielding error to tie the American League Championship Series at one game apiece.
First reported by The Guardian US, 13 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 56% |
| 14 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 58% |
| 14 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 57% |
| 14 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 72% |
| 13 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 71% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 62% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 63% |
| 12 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 62% |
| 12 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 61% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 60% |
| 11 Oct, 02:37 UTC | 0% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Tampa Bay respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 14 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 14 October at 03:18 UTC; www.espn.com followed 13 min later. The most recent article, from www.espn.com, appeared on 14 October at 04:27 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), www.espn.com (major outlet), Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Tampa Bay — the market puts it at 54%, with $29k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 10 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Tampa Bay wins the championship series against Cleveland in the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoffs. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific series. Readers often mistake a single game victory for winning the entire series.
- José Ramírez — the market puts it at 4%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if José Ramírez wins the 2026 World Series MVP award. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake this for a general MVP award or confuse the deadline with the regular season end date.
- Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? — the market puts it at 44%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series. The No outcome applies if any other team wins or if the Guardians are eliminated before winning the series. Readers often mistake the linked Wild Card or ALDS games for the decisive event, but only the winner of the final ALCS determines the result.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Tampa Bay at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Guardian USPeralta shines as Rays seize on Ramírez error to level ALCS against Guardians54%
- www.espn.comPeralta tosses gem, Rays cash in on Ramirez's gaffe in Game 2 win54%
- Latest articlesRays punish error to beat Guardians 3-1 and level series54%
- www.espn.comGame 1 star Ramirez shoulders blame as two costly miscues sink Guardians58%▲4 points since the previous source
- Current odds54%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Game 1 star Ramirez shoulders blame as two costly miscues sink Guardians www.espn.com ·
- Peralta tosses gem, Rays cash in on Ramirez's gaffe in Game 2 win www.espn.com ·
- Peralta shines as Rays seize on Ramírez error to level ALCS against Guardians The Guardian US ·
- Rays punish error to beat Guardians 3-1 and level series Latest articles
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Tampa Bay 54% +11
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi José Ramírez 4% −4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? 44% −13
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Jose Ramirez
- Freddy Peralta
- Liam Hicks
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Cleveland Guardians