New Zealand Voters Shift to Smaller Parties Ahead of Election
A new poll shows the governing National Party and opposition Labour Party losing support as voters move toward smaller rivals less than five weeks before the vote.
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The odds
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Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Sept, 23:29 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Sept, 16:00 UTC | 33% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 5 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 5 October at 20:08 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Labour party — the market puts it at 37%, closing 31 Aug 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the Labour party wins the most seats in the next UK general election. It resolves to No if any other party wins more seats. Readers often mistake a plurality of votes for a majority of seats, but only seat count matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi Labour party 37%
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In this story
- National Party
- Labour Party
- RNZ-Reid Research