Musk’s Doge team disrupts US federal agencies in efficiency drive
The Department of Government Efficiency sent young techies to federal agencies, prompting resistance from workers protecting immigrant data.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Sept, 13:42 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 01:03 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 15:48 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 23:14 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 19:38 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 17:48 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 16:04 UTC | 2% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 3 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 3 October at 05:00 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Before 2027 — the market puts it at 7%, with $323 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk ceases to be Tesla's CEO before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in that role through the end of 2026. Readers often mistake the release date of the linked documentary for the resolution deadline.
- Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — the market puts it at 0%, with $11k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The Yes outcome occurs if Elon Musk wins the 2028 US Presidential Election as determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for him. The No outcome applies if he does not win according to those sources or if another candidate is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. Readers often mistake the deadline for when the news outlets call the race rather than the inauguration date.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Before 2027 7% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0%
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Wrong market?
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In this story
- Elon Musk
- Doge