Musk Donates $276m to Republicans Ahead of Midterms as Meta Hits AI Frontier
Elon Musk has donated over $276 million to Republican groups, becoming the top known donor in the US midterm elections.
First reported by News Feed, 29 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 77% |
| 12 Oct, 03:18 UTC | 77% |
| 11 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 80% |
| 10 Oct, 23:30 UTC | 79% |
| 10 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 78% |
| 10 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 68% |
| 8 Oct, 12:45 UTC | 71% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 65% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 71% |
| 6 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 69% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Above $800 billion respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 12 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 12 October at 16:23 UTC; The Verge followed 30 min later. The most recent article, from News Feed, appeared on 12 October at 21:40 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), South China Morning Post.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Above $800 billion — the market puts it at 77%, with $24 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Forbes reports Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $800 billion on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any financial report counts instead of only Forbes.
- Elon Musk — the market puts it at 0%, with $3 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2028. The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk wins the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 and accepts it. The outcome is No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked story about a Pentagon study for the actual nomination event.
- Elon Musk — the market puts it at 0%, closing 7 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk formally accepts the Republican Party's vice presidential nomination in 2028. It resolves to No if he does not accept this specific nomination within that election cycle. Readers often mistake news about his involvement in other roles, such as leading a Pentagon study, for acceptance of the vice presidential bid.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above $800 billion at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News FeedMusk injects $275mn into Republicans’ fight to retain Congress77%
- The VergeElon Musk has donated over $276 million to Republican midterm efforts77%
- South China Morning PostElon Musk becomes biggest known donor in midterm elections in bid to save Republicans77%
- The HillMusk throws $276M behind Republicans in midterms77%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraElon Musk spends $366m to bolster Republican Party in US midterm elections77%
- The Hill NewsMusk gives GOP a boost ahead of the midterms77%
- News FeedFirstFT: Mark Zuckerberg says Meta has reached AI ‘frontier’77%
- Current odds77%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- FirstFT: Mark Zuckerberg says Meta has reached AI ‘frontier’ News Feed ·
- Musk gives GOP a boost ahead of the midterms The Hill News ·
- Elon Musk spends $366m to bolster Republican Party in US midterm elections Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Musk throws $276M behind Republicans in midterms The Hill ·
- Elon Musk has donated over $276 million to Republican midterm efforts The Verge ·
- Musk injects $275mn into Republicans’ fight to retain Congress News Feed ·
- Elon Musk becomes biggest known donor in midterm elections in bid to save Republicans South China Morning Post
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Above $800 billion 77% −3
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- Kalshi Elon Musk 0%
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- Kalshi Elon Musk 0%
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