Missourians Reject Ballot Proposal to Re-impose Abortion Ban Hot: Odds moved 15 points in 24 hours
Voters defeated the measure, which sought to ban abortion and transgender treatment for minors, reversing a previous legalization.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 04:03 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:41 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Nov, 15:31 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 30% |
| 31 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 36% |
| 28 Oct, 08:51 UTC | 25% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Amendment 7 respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 4 Nov 2026. NPR Politics published first, on 4 November at 04:25 UTC; Mother Jones followed 18 min later. The most recent article, from Mother Jones, appeared on 4 November at 04:42 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: NPR Politics (major outlet), Mother Jones.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Amendment 7 — the market puts it at 2%, with $98 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Amendment 7 passes in Missouri and No otherwise. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the resolution criteria instead of the official election results.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Amendment 7 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Amendment 7 2% −15
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In this story
- Missouri