Microsoft Profit Jumps 32% as Cloud Revenue Beats Expectations Hot: Odds moved 30 points in 24 hours
Microsoft reported a 19% revenue rise to $92.3 billion, driven by strong Azure cloud growth that offset data center spending.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 52% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 47% |
| 28 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 35% |
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| 28 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 36% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 38% |
| 28 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 48% |
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| 26 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 48% |
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| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 44% |
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| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 45% |
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| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 44% |
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| 24 Oct, 00:13 UTC | 43% |
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| 23 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 43% |
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| 22 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 44% |
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| 22 Oct, 17:31 UTC | 47% |
| 22 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 41% |
| 22 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 43% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 44% |
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| 22 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 40% |
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| 22 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 41% |
| 22 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 43% |
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| 22 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 45% |
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| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 39% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 38% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? respond.
The story so far
6 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 27 Oct 2026. MarketWatch published first, on 27 October at 14:53 UTC; Bloomberg Technology followed 29h 15m later. The most recent article, from theinformation.com, appeared on 28 October at 20:39 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Technology (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), MarketWatch, theinformation.com.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — the market puts it at 52%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Microsoft must hold the third-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026, for the Yes outcome to occur. The No outcome applies if any other company holds that rank at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution date or assume the ranking is determined by news reports rather than actual closing market prices.
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — the market puts it at 1%, with $8k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Microsoft must hold the highest global market capitalization at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026. The final ranking depends on verified financial data from trusted news sources rather than real-time fluctuations. Readers often mistake the date of the linked article for the resolution deadline.
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? — the market puts it at 87%, with $16k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Nov 2026. For the Yes outcome, Microsoft must hold the third-largest market capitalization among all global companies at the market close on October 31, 2026. For the No outcome, any other company holds that position at that specific time. Readers often mistake the linked story about Nscale and Anthropic as relevant to the ranking, but only Microsoft's actual market cap relative to others matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- MarketWatchMicrosoft earnings will look funky — but an elusive number is finally arriving43%
- Bloomberg TechnologyMicrosoft Reports Quarterly Cloud Sales That Beat Estimates35%▼8 points since the previous source
- News FeedMicrosoft shares climb 5% after cloud revenue beats expectations35%
- The VergeMicrosoft reveals strong cloud growth amid financial reporting overhaul47%▲12 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg TechnologyKey Takeaways From Microsoft and ServiceNow Earnings47%
- The New York TimesMicrosoft’s Profit Jumps 32% Despite Big Increase in Spending47%
- theinformation.comMicrosoft Revenue Growth Accelerates Slightly But Data Centers Dampen Cash Flows47%
- Current odds52%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Microsoft’s Profit Jumps 32% Despite Big Increase in Spending The New York Times ·
- Key Takeaways From Microsoft and ServiceNow Earnings Bloomberg Technology ·
- Microsoft reveals strong cloud growth amid financial reporting overhaul The Verge ·
- Microsoft shares climb 5% after cloud revenue beats expectations News Feed ·
- Microsoft Reports Quarterly Cloud Sales That Beat Estimates Bloomberg Technology ·
- Microsoft Revenue Growth Accelerates Slightly But Data Centers Dampen Cash Flows theinformation.com
- Microsoft earnings will look funky — but an elusive number is finally arriving MarketWatch
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 52% +9
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31? 87% +30
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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