Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?
Why it moved: +51 points at 20:17 UTC, after News Feed: Microsoft shares climb 5% after cloud revenue beats expectations — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 28 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 95% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 87% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 88% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 83% |
| 28 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 37% |
| 28 Oct, 13:41 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 38% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 46% |
| 28 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 52% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 07:22 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 02:37 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 53% |
| 26 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 53% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 08:51 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 48% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 47% |
| 26 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 47% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
For the Yes outcome, Microsoft must hold the third-largest market capitalization among all global companies at the market close on October 31, 2026. For the No outcome, any other company holds that position at that specific time. Readers often mistake the linked story about Nscale and Anthropic as relevant to the ranking, but only Microsoft's actual market cap relative to others matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%
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