Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Why it moved: +5 points at 14:56 UTC, after www.theregister.com: Microsoft celebrates end of Office 2021 LTSC with MS 365 outage — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 13 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 33% |
| 13 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 33% |
| 13 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 37% |
| 13 Oct, 16:11 UTC | 34% |
| 13 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 13:41 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Oct, 08:47 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 27% |
| 12 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 30% |
| 11 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 40% |
| 11 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 45% |
| 11 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 52% |
| 11 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 54% |
| 11 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 42% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 38% |
| 11 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 41% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 44% |
| 11 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 40% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 50% |
| 7 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
Microsoft must hold the third-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the exact moment the stock market closes on December 31, 2026, for the Yes outcome to occur. The No outcome applies if any other company holds that rank at that specific time. Readers often mistake the resolution date or assume the ranking is determined by news reports rather than actual closing market prices.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 68%
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