Meta Forecasts $135-145 Billion Capex for 2026 Amid AI Spending Surge

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 21 Oct 2026. All Content from Business Insider published first, on 21 October at 20:14 UTC; Fortune followed 3 min later. The most recent article, from Fortune, appeared on 21 October at 20:17 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: All Content from Business Insider, Fortune.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Above 65000 — the market puts it at 84%, with $600 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Mar 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Meta Platforms reports a headcount exceeding 65,000 in 2026. It resolves to No if the reported headcount is 65,000 or lower. Readers often mistake the linked news story about capital expenditure for the relevant metric, but only employee headcount counts.
• Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? — the market puts it at 1%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET to see which company owns the model with the highest rank. If ranks are tied, the system uses the precise arena score and then alphabetical order of company names as tiebreakers.
• Above 3.72 billion — the market puts it at 55%, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Mar 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Meta Platforms Inc. reports more than 3.72 billion family daily active users in 2026. It resolves to No if that number is 3.72 billion or lower. Readers often mistake the linked headline about capital expenditure for the actual metric being measured.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.