Maine Voters Could Determine Control of Senate in Midterms

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 5 Oct 2026. NPR Politics published first, on 5 October at 08:44 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Democratic party wins — the market puts it at 59%, with $205 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat wins the general election for Maine's Senate seat before January 2027 and Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the nomination deadline or assume any Democratic candidate counts instead of specifically Graham Platner.
• Maine — the market puts it at 66%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the winner of the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Maine wins by a margin between 0 and 5 percentage points, inclusive. The outcome depends on the official certified results of that specific race. Readers often mistake the date of the vote for the resolution deadline or confuse this with other statewide elections.
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? — the market puts it at 43%, with $23k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 4 Nov 2026. The "Yes" outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The "No" outcome applies if any other candidate wins or if no candidate is declared the winner by the resolution sources.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.