Mahmoud Khalil Asks US Supreme Court to Block Deportation Hot: Odds moved 20 points in 24 hours

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 19 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 19 October at 18:53 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 1h 59m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 20 October at 01:21 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), South China Morning Post, Latest articles.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Mahmoud Khalil — the market puts it at 18%, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Mahmoud Khalil is arrested before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the filing of a Supreme Court petition for an arrest.
• Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice — the market puts it at 21%, with $746 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari for Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this action does not occur by that deadline. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Mahmoud Khalil as the deciding factor, but only the Supreme Court's specific grant of certiorari counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.